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Author Topic: Wafer Shortage...  (Read 3556 times)
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madhan7710
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« on: January 22, 2021, 05:16:27 17:16 »

There is a huge wafer shortage worldwide and so there will be a huge demand for ic"s it seems. Almost all manufacturers lead time is extended... Some manufacturers lead time is up to 54 weeks... So everyone plan accordingly...
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« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2021, 05:34:29 17:34 »

so you will have 54 weeks to learn new stuff Cheesy
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Sideshow Bob
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« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2021, 06:33:44 18:33 »

I was under under the impression that it was manufacturing capacity that was the root of the problem. The foundry capacity can not meet the demand. So everybody has to stand in line and wait for their turn at the chip foundry. It is not a lack of wafers per se. But the result is same for the end user. So maybe I am knitpicking.
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« Reply #3 on: January 22, 2021, 10:26:13 22:26 »

every few years we get Hard drive - memory - long time delays.
when we start getting stocks, the tech has moved on, so we are stuck with old stock.
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« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2021, 07:37:09 19:37 »

 This time looks serious. Big companies plan to increase the prices with 20 to 30 percent and this will be seen in the market very soon. And this is not just a rumor. A big company known by more than  95% of the forum's users have some internally anouncment. Unfortunatelly can't reveal the name but is good if have large production to make an early purchasing.
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Wilksey
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« Reply #5 on: January 26, 2021, 09:31:41 09:31 »

Honda are closing plants because of the shortage
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Sideshow Bob
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« Reply #6 on: January 26, 2021, 10:39:31 10:39 »

And on top of all. Chinese new year is around the corner. Factories in China will close down for a month. Also in Taiwan factories will close, but not quite as long as a month

Posted on: January 26, 2021, 10:26:08 10:26 - Automerged

Honda are closing plants because of the shortage
Most of them are in some way touched by the semiconductor shortage
https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-bb12adb6106019a618440d85fd91f77e
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madhan7710
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« Reply #7 on: January 26, 2021, 12:19:34 12:19 »

Am a regular importer from china and now almost all the prices gone up around 30 to 40% and few items more than double the price... Those who said 100KK stock available are telling all sold out. Definitely goinf to be very tough... The  shortage impact has not yet started to reflect the local market fully. Once it gets reflected there will be no stock available anywhere... Very bad situation. And few companies declare it will not come back to normal tjis year 2021. Not sure to take how serious this will be..
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token0
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« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2021, 04:11:20 16:11 »

Friend of mine is importing some goods from Asia to Europe, and he said that shipping cost of freight container shipment raised from 2000 to 6000 Euros. In addition, there is a major shortage of bicycles — my other friend can't buy one.
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danymogh
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« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2021, 06:50:27 18:50 »

I don't believe there is a Shortage per say.

this Shortage started right after Corona and China closing the factories. I think it's a dirty tactical scenario to increase the costs and advertise their own silicon companies. STM32 MCU prices have almost tripled since last year, yet Chinese MCUs have not seen any change in their price.
check Taobao, all Chinese MCUs are in stock in large quantities and you can buy them much cheaper. some companies like FMD and Origin-gd have manufactured PIC-like MCUs which have higher Flash/Ram/EEPROM and the cost compared to their PIC counterpart are so so cheap you're gonna laugh!
other manufacturers like Geehy are producing STM32 compatible products at much cheaper prices as well and all their parts are in stock while for the STM32 you're gonna have to wait.

currently, I'm developing a certain Key FOB and I was thinking to use the stm8s001 because it is cheap and answers my needs for bulk production.
when we were in mid-Corona (like August 2020) the stm8 price was around 0.15$-0.17$ so it seemed reasonable for my product. just in 2 Months, the price soared to 0.37$! just because of that I had to change my plan and choose another MCU. right now I've picked one of the PIC-like MCus at 0.06$ only and I'm pleased with the functionality it provides!

So In my opinion there's no immidiate shortage, it's just a Chinese game to gain over the Silicon industry.
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sfiga69
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« Reply #10 on: March 01, 2021, 09:34:39 21:34 »

In my city there is a silicon wafer manufacturer and this morning i went into the factory for pc assistance.
Speaking to the people inside about the hypothesis of a lack of silicon wafers, they told me that they are producing tons of them and that they are not even close to the maximum production capacity. They are adjusting production to demand.
According to them, the shortage of silicon components is due to other causes
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Sideshow Bob
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« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2021, 08:52:21 08:52 »

In my city there is a silicon wafer manufacturer and this morning i went into the factory for pc assistance.
Speaking to the people inside about the hypothesis of a lack of silicon wafers, they told me that they are producing tons of them and that they are not even close to the maximum production capacity. They are adjusting production to demand.
According to them, the shortage of silicon components is due to other causes
That line up well with what I have heard from others. The main problem is  foundry capacity. They work as hard as they can. But they have very long lead times. The pandemic situation do not help either. It has casued a supply chain disruption in all levels of the supply food chain. You can not manufacture much if you can't get such a simple thing as screws. Neither can you make caps without the proper raw materials. But it would also be navie to not think that many take advamtage of the supply chain disruption jacking up prices in any step of the supply food chain
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maurer
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« Reply #12 on: April 11, 2021, 05:34:22 17:34 »

I can't understand if the problems is the demand increase or something happened to the factory plants.
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CocaCola
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« Reply #13 on: April 12, 2021, 01:28:34 01:28 »

I can't understand if the problems is the demand increase or something happened to the factory plants.

COVID has disrupted the entire world economy, the entire supply and demand chain from the most basic mining of raw products all the way to the actual retail item sitting on a store shelf and consumer's spending habits has been affected, the ripple will smooth over, it just needs time...
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Sideshow Bob
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« Reply #14 on: April 12, 2021, 08:15:35 08:15 »

I can't understand if the problems is the demand increase or something happened to the factory plants.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3A4yk-P5ukY
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Poty
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« Reply #15 on: April 12, 2021, 11:10:03 23:10 »

All this looks like a roulette...each player has to bet, and when luck touches him, raises prices as much as their products are required. Sounds normal, but in this case, seems forged. This is a result of the unbalanced production around the world.
Next: Food and water.
Looks like a conspiration... Will it be?
Or just greedy people...
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CocaCola
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« Reply #16 on: April 13, 2021, 12:51:53 00:51 »

This is a result of the unbalanced production around the world.

No, it's more so a result of the balance being knocking off-kilter because of COVID.

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Next: Food and water.

I don't know where you are but in the US the entire food market has been off-kilter for the better part of a year, and yes even the beverage market has been impacted as consumer demand shifted due to changes put in place for COVID.  My wife works in the food and beverage sector, it's been turned upside down with demands shifting all over the place.  One of the bigger problems in the beverage sector that parallels this wafer shortage was the 12oz soda/beer can shortage for the better part of the last year in the US, as the public shifted away from bars and restaurants demand for retail consumer 12oz aluminum cans skyrocketed overnight creating shortages, almost identical to the wafer shortage...
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Poty
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« Reply #17 on: April 13, 2021, 03:56:41 03:56 »

Hmmm.... aluminum cans have a very fast process. Shortage may rely on aluminum source... But I donīt think so. Besides that, Aluminum cans arenīt so common around here. We still use a lot of glass (recyclable or not), and soda is for sale in plastic (returnable or not) in volumes from 12oz to almost 0.79 gallon (3 liters). 40 years ago, I was visiting USA, and it was the same as here, plastic and glass bottles. Does that changed there? I`m from SouthAmerica.
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CocaCola
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« Reply #18 on: April 13, 2021, 04:15:16 04:15 »

Hmmm.... aluminum cans have a very fast process. Shortage may rely on aluminum source... But I donīt think so.

It had nothing to do with a shortage of aluminum (I wish it did as I have about 800 lbs of aluminum cans I have been sitting on waiting for the aluminum price to spike) it was just like the video above for wafers demand shot up exceeding production capability due to changes in consumer buying patterns due to COVID...

The US does have a lot of plastic bottles for soda and other drinks, but cans still rule the beer and soda retail consumer market...
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Poty
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« Reply #19 on: April 13, 2021, 04:33:15 04:33 »

Sounds sad to me... I remember Pabst Blue Ribbon in a beautiful clear glass bottle, tasting like glory to me at that time...
I canīt understand this: Aluminum can producers donīt have capacity to increase production? So, they usually produce cans at the limit of their system? sounds weird to me.
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CocaCola
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« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2021, 04:48:52 04:48 »

Aluminum can producers donīt have capacity to increase production? So, they usually produce cans at the limit of their system? sounds weird to me.

Just like the wafer companies a vast majority of manufacturing in the US runs at about 80% capacity, this allows for some surge capacity and also allows for some downtime for maintenance to be covered with just a small bump in the existing manufacturing capacity of the machines and labor force, while at the same time optimizing manufacturing space, machinery overhead and labor cost...  But, at the same time when you crank up to 100% capacity to meet a surge but that surging demand is 140% these companies are generally not going to rush out and rent more space, buy more machinery and hire more people on the spot for this temporary demand surge, they will simply wait it out and things will return to normal and they won't be left with a bloated work force, and machinery that is now only running at 50% capacity with extra overhead cost...

Quote
I remember Pabst Blue Ribbon in a beautiful clear glass bottle, tasting like glory to me at that time...

LOL, don't take this wrong as I have a lot of foreign friends that share similar stores about this or that US beer, that said if you live in the US Pabst is the bottom of the barrel, the people that drink it generally only drink it because it's cheap...  Again not a dig, I have several foreign friends that love beers that are considered garbage beers in the US, and I'm sure some of the imported beer into the US is considered garbage beer in the home countries...

Circle back to cans, if you go to the Pabst website, notice all the pictures are of it in cans?  https://pabstblueribbon.com/
« Last Edit: April 13, 2021, 04:56:04 04:56 by CocaCola » Logged
Poty
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« Reply #21 on: April 13, 2021, 05:09:38 05:09 »

I agree with this, it isnīt reasonable to have equipment just standing by, just in case. But a 20% of reserve capacity doesnīt seems too much. Of course, I`m not an specialist in aluminum cans production, or production in general, but it will being nice to check some curves, like machine maintenance costs against full production capacity and partial production capacity... all with time basis, of course.
20% looks like a little short to me.
Anyways, wiser people will manage this. (I hope)
Regards
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« Reply #22 on: April 14, 2021, 05:58:51 05:58 »

I can confirm that the price of microchips has gone up and there is a feeling that prices will continue to rise. Angry
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